Sunday, February 15, 2009

Today's Game is a Must-win

Despite, the win over Louisville on Thrursday, the Irish still remain on the outside of the bubble looking in.  But let's look at the big picture.  Notre Dame is 13-10 and 4-7 in conference play with 7 games left to go.  4 of the last 7 are home, those are all must win games.  The toughest opponent in those four games will be Villanova, but the Irish also play St. John's and Rutgers.  There are also 3 road games ahead as well.  The best case scenario here would be to go 2-1.  The games include at Connecticut, West Virginia and Providence.  They are all tough games, but UConn stands out as a game that is almost un-winnable

Here are the scenarios that I believe will get ND into the tourney:

1. Go 7-0 the rest of the way and finish 20-10 and 11-7 in conference.  Irish will get in easily.

2. Go 6-1 the rest of the way and finsih 19-11 with a 10-8 conference record.  Irish should get in.

3. Go 5-2, finish with a 18-12 record and a 9-9 conference record AND have a strong Big East Tournament performance.  Irish should get in.

4. Anything lower than 5-2 will result in a below .500 conference record and the only way into the tournament will be a BET win. 

Numbers 2 and 3 are highly possible,  1 would be great but it is not that realistic considering the game at UConn.

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